What the 2026 Midterms Mean for Florida Business

By Brian French | TallahasseeBusinessNews.com | September 9, 2026

Quick Answer

On November 3, Florida elects a new governor, a U.S. senator, a full Cabinet and a new Legislature, and votes on Amendment 3, a property-tax overhaul that needs 60% approval. For business owners, the practical questions are who controls Tallahassee for the next four years, whether property-tax relief for homeowners shifts costs onto commercial property and renters, and how a leaner state budget filters through to contracts, permits and the capital-city workforce.

The Ballot at a Glance

Recent polling shows Donalds leading Jolly by low to mid single digits, closer than Florida’s recent statewide margins. A closer race means both campaigns will keep courting the business vote through October.

Amendment 3: The Biggest Business Story on the Ballot

Amendment 3 would significantly alter Florida’s property tax structure by sharply raising homestead exemptions and cutting the non-homestead assessment cap from 10% to 5%. The homestead exemption for non-school levies would rise to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028. School district taxes are not touched.

The commercial side is a double-edged sword. Cutting the assessment-growth cap on non-homestead property, including second homes and commercial real estate, from 10% to 5% is a direct benefit to landlords, hotels and office owners in fast-appreciating markets. But the Tax Foundation warns that removing such a large share of the tax base does not lower the cost of local services; it forces the revenue to come from somewhere else, including higher millage on the property that remains taxable. Florida Policy Institute’s reading is that localities would turn to rental and commercial properties, and businesses would have to decide whether to absorb the cost or pass it to renters and consumers.

Two former Florida mayors and a newly formed nonprofit launched opposition in June, and several counties have publicly estimated significant revenue losses. Leon County, with a large tax-exempt state and university footprint, has less commercial base to shift onto than Miami-Dade or Orange, making the local math especially tight. Watch the county’s millage discussion closely if this passes.

Donalds has doubled down on cutting or even eliminating property taxes if elected, so a Donalds win plus a “yes” vote likely means the 2027 session pushes further. Jolly has promoted tourist tax reform instead, which would redirect bed-tax dollars, a live issue for the hospitality sector.

Property Insurance Still Drives the Vote

Jolly built his campaign on fixing the property insurance crisis, and Donalds also lists solving it among his top three priorities alongside illegal immigration and expanding economic opportunity. Donalds promised insurance cuts as the race pivoted to November. The candidates agree on the diagnosis and differ on the cure: continued tort-reform-and-competition versus stronger regulation of insurers and rate review. The state’s FY 2026-27 tax package already included a three-year sales-tax exemption on wind-resistant windows and doors, a sign that mitigation incentives will be the bipartisan common ground regardless of who wins.

The Budget: Austerity Comes to the Capital City

The budget fight that consumed spring 2026 previews the fiscal posture either governor inherits. House and Senate proposals of $113.6 billion and $115.0 billion ended in a $114.5 billion compromise that, despite being described as a cut, spends $2 billion more in General Revenue than the current year. After nearly $810 million in line-item vetoes, DeSantis signed a $117.6 billion budget he called the fourth consecutive year of declining state spending.

For Tallahassee specifically, Democrats objected that the budget removes over 300 state employee positions, while the plan included 4% raises for state law enforcement and pay increases for prosecutors. The next governor’s first budget recommendation in December 2026 will signal whether the trend of headcount reduction continues, which directly affects downtown office demand, restaurants and housing in Leon County.

There is also a second constitutional amendment that rarely gets attention. The budget adds $118 million to the Budget Stabilization Fund plus another $750 million contingent on voters raising the fund’s cap from 10% to 25% of prior-year General Revenue. Passage would lock more cash in reserves, good for the state’s credit rating, but it also shrinks the pool available for member projects and economic development incentives.

Leadership Turnover in Every Chamber

This election resets the entire power structure lobbyists have worked with since 2024. Speaker Daniel Perez, who repeatedly blocked DeSantis’s agenda, hands off to Speaker Designate Sam Garrison after the election, and Senate President Ben Albritton’s term also ends. A new governor, new presiding officers and a Cabinet led by an attorney general seeking his first full term mean every association and trade group in Tallahassee is rebuilding relationships from scratch this winter.

The Perez-DeSantis feud had real business consequences. The 2025 session ran more than 100 days over schedule, and the 2026 budget required a special session in mid-May to close a $1.4 billion gap. Whether the new Speaker and new governor cooperate is the single biggest predictor of whether the 2027 session finishes on time in early May or drags into summer again.

Federal Stakes: Senate, House and Redrawn Maps

Florida’s Senate special election is one of the state’s most closely watched federal contests of 2026, with the winner serving the remainder of Rubio’s term through January 2029. For business, a Moody win keeps a reliable vote for the current administration’s tax and deregulatory agenda; a Nixon upset would be the first Democratic statewide win in years and shift Florida’s posture on federal labor and trade policy.

The U.S. House map was redrawn in the April special session, and all 28 seats are being contested on new lines. North Florida’s congressional representation, which matters for military, agriculture and Space Coast appropriations, could look different in January.

What Business Owners Should Do Before November

1. Property owners: Run your 2027 tax bill under Amendment 3 both ways. The 5% cap helps; the millage response may not.
2. State contractors: Expect the December budget recommendation to continue headcount discipline. Diversify beyond state agency revenue.
3. Hospitality: Track Jolly’s tourist tax proposal; it would change how bed-tax revenue can be spent.
4. Everyone: Meet the new legislative leadership before committee weeks begin. Organizational session is in November, and 2027 committee weeks start soon after.

Brian’s Take

Florida businesses have gotten used to a Legislature that cuts taxes every year, and this ballot continues the pattern. The risk is that the cuts are homeowner-facing and the bill lands on commercial property. Amendment 3 is the vote that will actually move Florida business costs in 2027, more than the governor’s race. I would rather see the 60% threshold hold this amendment to a debate about millage caps than watch counties discover the cost shift in next summer’s TRIM notices. In Tallahassee, the quieter story is a state government that keeps shrinking its own workforce while the city’s private economy still leans on it. That is a diversification problem no candidate is talking about.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does Amendment 3 lower taxes for businesses?
It lowers the assessment-growth cap on commercial property from 10% to 5%, but local governments may raise millage to replace lost homestead revenue.

Can the governor cut property taxes without a vote?
No. Property taxes are constitutional and local; the governor can only push amendments and pressure the Legislature.

Who leads the Legislature after the election?
Sam Garrison is Speaker Designate; a new Senate President is also seated in November.

When does the next governor present a budget?
By law, the governor’s recommendation is due about 30 days before the regular session, typically December or early January.

Does the reserve amendment affect spending?
Yes. Raising the Rainy Day cap to 25% of General Revenue parks more money in reserves instead of programs.

Sources and Further Reading

1. Florida TaxWatch – Property Tax Resource Center (Amendment 3): https://floridataxwatch.org/research/florida-property-tax-resource-center/
2. Florida Policy Institute – Voter Guide: Amendment 3 (Aug. 7, 2026): https://www.floridapolicy.org/posts/voter-guide-what-floridians-should-know-about-amendment-3
3. Pinellas County Property Appraiser – Amendment 3 FAQs: https://www.pcpao.gov/amendment3
4. Barnes Walker – Florida property tax update after the June special session: https://barneswalker.com/florida-property-tax-update-what-actually-happened-in-the-2026-legislative-session/
5. Florida TaxWatch – 2026-27 budget analysis: https://floridataxwatch.org/legislative-policy/budget/
6. WCTV – Lawmakers pass budget with partial state worker raises (May 29, 2026): https://www.wctv.tv/2026/05/29/florida-lawmakers-pass-millions-education-partial-raises-state-workers/
7. FOX 13 – DeSantis signs $117.6B budget (June 29, 2026): https://www.fox13news.com/news/gov-desantis-florida-budget-tax-relief-debt-reduction-record-reserves
8. Florida Phoenix – $115B budget finalized, tax package details: https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/05/26/115b-state-budget-finalized-over-memorial-day-weekend/
9. NewsNation – Donalds and Jolly advance to general election: https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/2026-midterm-elections/florida-governor-primary-results-2026/
10. Sparkers Soapbox – Florida governor general election tracker: https://www.sparkers-soapbox.com/florida-governor-general-election-2026/
11. FOX 35 Orlando – Where governor candidates stand on property taxes, immigration, housing: https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/florida-2026-primary-where-governor-candidates-stand-property-taxes-immigration-housing
12. FOX 13 – Florida Senate race: Moody’s November challenger: https://www.fox13news.com/news/florida-senate-race-challenge-ashley-moody-november
13. Florida Phoenix – Special session limited to redistricting (April 28, 2026): https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/04/28/florida-speaker-kills-desantis-ai-regulation-vaccine-repeal-bills-on-first-day-of-special-session/
14. Wikipedia – 2026 Florida elections overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Florida_elections

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