What a Matlow or Ausley Win Means for Blueprint, the Hospital, the Airport Gateway, and Who Controls City Hall
TallahasseeBusinessNews.com | By Brian French | Published September 15, 2026
This is the first installment of The Business Ballot, a Florida Authority Network series covering Tallahassee’s 2026 municipal runoff the way it would cover a change of CEO: what changes for permits, incentives, infrastructure spending, and contracts on the day after the vote. Updated after each campaign finance report and candidate forum through November 3.
Quick Answer
Who is running for Tallahassee mayor, and what does it mean for business? City Commissioner Jeremy Matlow and former state Senator Loranne Ausley advanced to the November 3, 2026 runoff after the August 18 primary, in which Matlow took 36.02%, Ausley 33.76%, attorney Daryl Parks 25.29%, and businessman Michael Foust 4.93%, with all 80 city precincts reporting. It is the first open mayoral seat in more than a decade, and the choice is unusually clear on business questions. Matlow, a restaurant owner who has spent his commission tenure opposing the Tallahassee Memorial hospital transfer to FSU, the $20 million Doak Campbell Stadium incentive, and Blueprint’s Airport Gateway and Northeast Gateway road projects, ran as the candidate against “developers and real estate interests.” Ausley, a lawyer who served in the Florida House and Senate, raised the bulk of her money from the business community and campaigned on collaboration and “the right type of infrastructure.” The stakes go beyond one office: Matlow’s allies P.J. Perez (Seat 3) and former Mayor Dot Inman-Johnson (Seat 5) are also in November runoffs. If all three win, a progressive bloc would hold a majority of the five-member City Commission for the first time — with direct authority over Blueprint’s sales-tax spending, the FSU Health lease, utility rates, and every development approval covered in this series’ Project Tracker.
The Race at a Glance
| Jeremy Matlow | Loranne Ausley | |
|---|---|---|
| Current role | City Commissioner, Seat 3 (since 2018); owner, Gaines Street Pies | Attorney; former state Representative and Senator (District 3, 2020–2022) |
| Primary result, Aug. 18 | 36.02% (first) | 33.76% (second) |
| Funds raised through June 12 | $169,000 | $270,000 |
| Donor profile | Most small donors in the field; most contributions under $25; average ~$50; mostly Leon County | Largely business community; over 80% from inside city limits in Q1; contributions from a D.C. Democratic committee, committees tied to former Rep. Ben Diamond and law firm Carlton Fields, and North Carolina donors |
| Outside money | Matlow says roughly $2 million in PAC spending opposed him; Republican canvassers labeled him a “Mamdani socialist” in the final week | — |
| July poll strength | Leads among Democrats (33–28) and voters under 50 | Leads among Republicans (36–7) and voters 70+ (47–20) |
| Endorsements noted | Big Bend Labor Council AFL-CIO | Labor unions (per public listings) |
| NEBA business-group straw poll, June | 15% | 27% (Parks 51%) |
Sources: Leon County Supervisor of Elections via Tallahassee Democrat and WFSU; Florida Politics; WCTV; Tallahassee Reports. Fundraising figures are through the June 12 reporting period; post-primary reports will be added.
Where They Stand on the Decisions That Move Money
| Issue | Matlow | Ausley | Business stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| TMH asset transfer to FSU ($109M sale; $250M FSU investment; 40-year lease still unsigned) | Repeatedly opposed; criticized the deal as favoring powerful interests and lacking transparency | Generally supports the FSU-TMH academic health center, with caveats | The next mayor and commission inherit an executed transfer but an unfinished lease; commission posture affects deed-restriction enforcement and any future amendment |
| Blueprint Airport Gateway (road/corridor project Matlow puts near $200M) | Advocates shutting it down; calls it “luxury roadways” while neighborhoods lack sidewalks and flood protection | “With growth we need to be talking about the right type of infrastructure”; did not call for cancellation | Engineering, paving, and land-value beneficiaries along the corridor; the Blueprint IA (all 12 city and county commissioners) votes on it |
| Northeast Gateway / Welaunee Boulevard | On record opposing | Not opposed | Directly tied to the 1,227-acre Welaunee Arch PUD in the Project Tracker |
| Doak Campbell Stadium incentive ($20M Blueprint appropriation, 7–5 IA vote) | Opposed | — | Precedent for future economic-development incentives from the penny sales tax |
| Blueprint priorities generally | Redirect to basic infrastructure — paving dirt paths, sidewalks, flooding | Growth-oriented infrastructure | Blueprint’s one-cent sales tax is the region’s largest discretionary capital source |
| Tone at City Hall | Defends disagreement and accountability as necessary | Emphasizes collaboration and teamwork | Predictability of approvals |
Positions as stated at the NEBA June luncheon, Tallahassee Reports’ forum summary, and post-primary coverage. Ausley did not attend the March 6 TAALERT forum.
What the Record Shows
A three-way race became a two-way ideological choice
The July poll that predicted the runoff also mapped it: Ausley, a Democrat in the Legislature, polls best with Republicans and older voters; Matlow leads among Democrats and the young. Parks, whose 25% was built on a third of Black voters and a public-safety, anti-poverty message, is the swing bloc — and he ran closer to Ausley on Blueprint (defending the Airport Gateway from his hospitality and airport-business experience) while drawing on a FAMU-rooted constituency that overlaps with Matlow’s coalition. Where Parks’ voters go on November 3 decides the race.
The money tells the business community’s preference
Through June 12 the top three candidates had raised roughly $725,000: Parks $284,000, Ausley $270,000, Matlow $169,000. Parks ultimately reported $319,000 raised and $285,000 spent. Ausley’s money came predominantly from business donors; Matlow’s from roughly twice as many individual donors giving small amounts. The Network of Entrepreneurs and Business Advocates straw poll in June — members only — gave Parks 51%, Ausley 27%, Matlow 15%. With Parks eliminated, the business community’s second choice is Ausley by a wide margin, and Matlow’s own election-night framing — “two million bucks, and we’re in first place” — acknowledges that the outside spending against him came from the same direction.
The commission math is the real story
Tallahassee’s City Commission has five members: the mayor and four seat-holders. Commissioner Jack Porter (Seat 1), a Matlow ally, is not on the ballot this year and cast one of the two votes against the TMH transfer in March. Matlow’s Seat 3 is open because he is running for mayor; P.J. Perez, part of his coalition, is in the runoff for it. In Seat 5, incumbent Dianne Williams-Cox faces former Mayor Dot Inman-Johnson, also in Matlow’s coalition.
If Matlow, Perez, and Inman-Johnson all win, the bloc that voted against the hospital transfer would hold four of five seats. If Ausley wins and either of the seat races goes the other way, the current 3–2 alignment that approved the TMH transfer, the Doak appropriation, and the downtown land sale to 908 Group persists. The runoff is therefore not one election but three, and business planning should treat them as a single outcome.
What each outcome likely means, on day one
A Matlow-led majority: Expect an attempt to halt or restructure the Airport Gateway and Northeast Gateway at Blueprint, a harder line on the unsigned FSU-TMH lease terms, more scrutiny of developer requests for deviations and incentives, and a shift of Blueprint capital toward neighborhood infrastructure. The county’s six Blueprint votes would still be required for any reversal, so cancellation is not a mayoral act alone.
An Ausley-led commission: Continuity on Blueprint’s project list, support for completing the FSU Health lease, and a collaborative posture toward the Welaunee and downtown developers already in the pipeline. The commission’s 3–2 pattern would likely hold on growth votes.
A split result (Ausley mayor, progressive gains in seats, or Matlow mayor with the incumbents holding): the 3–2 votes flip on specific projects rather than as a bloc, and the Blueprint IA — where the county’s six votes matter — becomes the deciding venue.
What It Means for Tallahassee Business
Developers and landowners: The Welaunee Arch PUD, the Northeast Gateway, and the 908 Group downtown projects all pass through commission votes in 2027. The runoff determines the posture of those votes.
Contractors on Blueprint work: The Airport Gateway is the single largest item at stake. Firms holding or bidding on its phases should model a scenario where the project is paused or re-scoped after January.
Health systems and physicians: A Matlow-led commission would press harder on the FSU-TMH lease and deed enforcement; an Ausley-led one would push to close it. Either way the lease is the first test of the new majority.
Utility customers: The city-owned electric and gas utility’s rates are set by the commission. Neither candidate has made rates a centerpiece, but the utility’s contribution to the general fund is a perennial commission lever.
Everyone: Turnout in the 2022 mayoral primary was 30%; in 2018 the runoff drew 38%. A general-election-day runoff on November 3 will bring far more voters than August did. The August result is a starting point, not a forecast.
Brian’s Take
Strip away the labels and this runoff is a referendum on how Tallahassee spends the Blueprint penny and how much deference it gives to big institutional deals. Matlow’s record is consistent: he was against the hospital transfer, against the stadium money, against the gateway roads, and he finished first anyway with the smallest war chest — which tells you the “special interests” message has an audience. Ausley’s record is the establishment’s: legislative experience, business money, and a pitch that the city needs to stop fighting and build. Both are legitimate governing philosophies, and I’m not here to pick. I am here to say that business leaders who treat this as a mayor’s race are missing the commission math. The two seat runoffs decide whether the next mayor has a majority or a veto. Watch the post-primary finance reports for where Parks’ donors go, and watch whether the business community consolidates behind Ausley in the seat races as well. The Business Ballot will publish an updated commission-scenario table after each report through November 3.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is in the runoff for Tallahassee mayor? City Commissioner Jeremy Matlow (36.02% in the August 18 primary) and former state Senator Loranne Ausley (33.76%). The runoff is November 3, 2026. Daryl Parks (25.29%) and Michael Foust (4.93%) were eliminated.
Who is the current mayor of Tallahassee? John E. Dailey, first elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022, who announced in August 2025 he would not seek a third term.
What other Tallahassee City Commission seats are on the November ballot? Seat 3 (open, Matlow’s seat), with P.J. Perez in the runoff, and Seat 5, where incumbent Dianne Williams-Cox faces former Mayor Dot Inman-Johnson.
What is the Blueprint Intergovernmental Agency? The joint city-county body, made up of all five city commissioners and seven county commissioners, that oversees Leon County’s one-cent infrastructure sales tax and its economic development arm, the Office of Economic Vitality. Major projects such as the Airport Gateway and Northeast Gateway are Blueprint decisions.
Where do the candidates stand on the TMH-FSU hospital deal? Matlow opposed the transfer of city hospital assets to FSU, which passed the commission 3–2 in March 2026. Ausley has generally supported the FSU-TMH academic health center. The operating lease between FSU and TMH had not been publicly announced as signed as of September 2026.
How much money has been raised in the Tallahassee mayor’s race? About $725,000 across the top three candidates through June 12, 2026: Parks $284,000, Ausley $270,000, Matlow $169,000. Matlow has said roughly $2 million in political-committee spending was directed against him.
Methodology
The Business Ballot compiles official primary results from the Leon County Supervisor of Elections as reported by the Tallahassee Democrat, WFSU, and WCTV; campaign finance totals from candidate reports as summarized by Florida Politics and WCTV (figures are through the reporting periods stated and will be updated with post-primary filings); candidate positions from the NEBA June 2026 luncheon, Tallahassee Reports’ August forum summary, and post-primary coverage by Florida Politics and WFSU; and polling from the July survey reported by Florida Politics. Commission-majority scenarios are Florida Authority Network analysis based on the March 2026 TMH transfer vote and the candidates’ public coalition affiliations; they are projections, not predictions. Florida Authority Network does not endorse candidates. Positions attributed to candidates are as reported in the cited sources; candidates may clarify or update them, and corrections will be published.
Sources and Resources
- Tallahassee Democrat (via Yahoo), “Results show Matlow, Ausley heading for runoff in Tallahassee mayor race,” August 18, 2026 — https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/election-results-time-tallahassee-mayor-230500348.html
- WFSU, “Jeremy Matlow, Loranne Ausley are headed to a runoff in the Tallahassee Mayor race,” August 18, 2026 — https://news.wfsu.org/2026-08-18/jerey-matlow-loranne-ausley-are-headed-to-a-runoff-in-the-tallahassee-mayor-race
- Florida Politics, “Jeremy Matlow leads first-round vote, will face Loranne Ausley in runoff,” August 2026 — https://floridapolitics.com/archives/814969-jeremy-matlow-leads-first-round-vote-will-face-loranne-ausley-in-runoff/
- Florida Politics, “Three-quarters of a million raised in crowded Tallahassee mayoral race,” June 23, 2026 — https://floridapolitics.com/archives/803694-three-quarters-of-a-million-raised-in-crowded-tallahassee-mayoral-race/
- Florida Politics, “Poll points to Loranne Ausley, Jeremy Matlow runoff in Tallahassee Mayor race,” July 21, 2026 — https://floridapolitics.com/archives/808741-poll-points-to-loranne-ausley-jeremy-matlow-runoff-in-tallahassee-mayor-race/
- Tallahassee Reports, “Daryl Parks Wins NEBA Straw Poll, Ausley Second,” July 1, 2026 — https://tallahasseereports.com/2026/07/01/daryl-parks-wins-neba-straw-poll-ausley-second/
- Tallahassee Reports, “Four Seek Tallahassee’s Leadership Mayor Position,” August 2, 2026 — https://tallahasseereports.com/2026/08/02/four-seek-tallahassees-leadership-mayor-position/
- WCTV, “Three Tallahassee mayoral candidates pull in bulk of campaign contributions in first quarter of year,” April 21, 2026 — https://www.wctv.tv/2026/04/21/three-tallahassee-mayoral-candidates-pull-bulk-campaign-contributions-first-quarter-year/
- WCTV, “LIVE BLOG: Election results start to roll in across Florida,” August 18, 2026 — https://www.wctv.tv/2026/08/18/live-blog-election-results-start-roll-across-florida/
- Leon County Supervisor of Elections — https://www.leonvotes.gov/
- Blueprint Intergovernmental Agency — https://blueprintia.org/
Related coverage across the Florida Authority Network: Florida Law News (government affairs), and the TallahasseeBusinessNews Project Tracker, Capital Health Watch, and TLH Airport Scorecard, which cover the projects at stake in this election.
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